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Andras Schmelczer 2026-06-25 23:41:46 +02:00
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src/content/work/foreign-exchange-prediction-experiment.md
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alt: Chart comparing predicted and actual EUR/USD exchange rates.
article:
tags: ['systems', 'tools']
role: Experiment author
stack: ['Python', 'NumPy', 'SciPy', 'Flask', 'MQL4']
outcome: A prediction server, an MQL4 trading client, and a clearer view of how far my edge wasn't
audience: technical
project:
title: Foreign Exchange Prediction Experiment
description: A Hanning-windowed STFT experiment on EUR/USD. Passable backtest, sober conclusions, no real money risked.
thumbnail:
alt: Chart from a foreign exchange prediction experiment.
---
In the autumn of 2019 I was an undergrad with a few free weekends and the quiet conviction that I could find a small edge on EUR/USD. The screenshots that survive are flattering: the predicted rate in blue hugging the actual rate in green closely enough to look like skill. It was a linear extrapolation in the frequency domain wearing a nice coat.